Ron Paul’s “Audit the Fed” bill passed the House of Representatives today by an overwhelming margin: 325-99. As Kate Nocera of Politico notes, the bill has come a long way from being one of Ron Paul’s lonely crusades to being a measure with broad bipartisan support.
Even though the audit doesn’t directly constrain the Fed’s power --
or abolish it, as Paul would really like to do -- the Fed has been resistant
because it sees an audit as undermining its independence from Congress.
The key question is, how independent do we want the Fed to be?
The point of central bank independence is to allow the bank to make
good policy decisions that politicians might object to. In the early
1980s, this meant keeping interest rates high in order to bring down inflation, despite businesses and politicians who would have liked cheaper borrowing in order to encourage more investment in the short term.
While the common worry is politicians demanding inappropriately loose
monetary policy, today we have the opposite problem: politicians,
including Paul, demanding that the Fed tighten when it ought to be
loosening more. Unfortunately, Ben Bernanke and the Fed governors have
not been willing to stand up to these voices; they have failed even to
meet the Fed's 2 percent inflation target, let alone to raise it, or to
adopt a policy like nominal GDP targeting, which would call for higher
inflation when it is needed (like today).
On one hand, I wonder what good an independent Fed is when it won't
use its independence to undertake unpopular but correct policy. On the
other hand, I worry that a Fed more closely overseen by Congress would
have allowed even more disinflation over the last few years.
But it doesn't have to be the case that Congress is a voice for bad monetary policy. After Ben Bernanke, the most blame for the Fed's insufficient action belongs with liberal politicians. While conservatives in Washington
have demanded hard-money policies that would drive unemployment even
higher and GDP growth lower, liberals have been nearly silent on
monetary policy.
Looser money and higher inflation (again, not forever, but in our
current circumstances) would be good for the economy as a whole, but it
would be especially good for the unemployed and the indebted,
constituencies that are disproportionately Democratic. It should have
fallen to Democrats to counter Republican pressure for hard money, but
all the way up to President Obama, they have not done so. So, even if
Bernanke had wanted to loosen more aggressively, he would have lacked
political cover for doing so.
I expect more Congressional oversight of the Fed to simply mean more
opportunities for hard money advocates to use it as a punching bag. That
political pressure might mean tighter money and even worse monetary
policy. But if liberal members of Congress -- or conservatives who have
been reading Ramesh Ponnuru and David Beckworth -- started insisting that the Fed has been too tight, some more Congressional meddling might be a good thing.
Source - Bloomberg
No comments:
Post a Comment