www.zerohedge.com - Submitted by Tyler Durden
Authored by Lars Seier Christensen, CEO Saxo Bank; originally posted at his blog at TradingFloor.com,
It is difficult to describe the weekend bailout package to Cyprus in
any other way. The confiscation of 6.75 percent of small depositors'
money and 9.9 percent of big depositors' funds is without precedence
that I can think of in a supposedly civilised and democratic society. But maybe the European Union (EU) is no longer a civilised democracy?
I heard rumours about this when I visited Limassol last week, but dismissed them as completely outlandish. And yet, here we are. The consequences are unpredictable, but we are clearly looking at a significant paradigm shift.
This is a breach of fundamental property rights, dictated to a
small country by foreign powers and it must make every bank depositor
in Europe shiver. Although the representatives at the bailout
press conference tried to present this as a one-off, they were not
willing to rule out similar measures elsewhere - not that it would have
mattered much as the trust is gone anyway. It is now difficult to expect
any kind of limitation to what measures the Troika and EU might take
when the crisis really starts to bite.
If you can do this once, you can do it again. if you
can confiscate 10 percent of a bank customer's money, you can
confiscate 25, 50 or even 100 percent. I now believe we will see worse
as the panic increases, with politicians desperately trying to keep the
EUR alive.
Depositors in other prospective bailout countries must be
running scared - is it safe to keep money in an Italian, Spanish or
Greek bank any more? I dont know, must be the answer. Is it
prudent to take the risk? You decide. I fear this will lead to massive
capital outflows from weak Eurozone countries, just about the last thing
they need right now. Even from the EU as a whole, I suspect, as the
banking union is in place in most countries already.
Another open question is what will happen to the huge number of brokerages based in Cyprus?
There is about 100 or more FX and other brokers currently operating
under the relatively light Cypriot regulation. How will this impact the
trustworthiness of these many small institutions? What IS the exact
impact on the client deposits they might be holding in Cyprus? Will
anyone dare to do business with them going forward?
This is a major, MAJOR game changer and the fallout will be with us for a long time to come.
I believe it could be the beginning of the end for the Eurozone as this
is an unbelievable blow to the already challenged trust that might be
left among investors. Talk about a possible own goal.
Market reaction? it must be very good for gold - and for safe-haven countries like Switzerland, Singapore
and economically more healthy non-Euro countries in, for example,
Scandinavia. I would think the EUR and associated markets will be
undermined by increasing lack of confidence when the full implications
become clear for investors.
This is full-blown socialism and I still cannot believe this really happened.
Be careful out there...
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